CONE CALCULATOR TOOL

Time-Horizon Probability Cone Engine

Deriving Mathematical Price Target Boundaries and Volatility Shock Deflation Risks

Mathematical Parameter Inputs

● Auto-Calculating
📊

Derived Standard Deviation Probability Output

📐 1-Sigma Target Cone (68% Chance)
Calculated Move Buffer: --
Upper Statistical Boundary: --
Lower Statistical Boundary: --
🌡️ Vega Shock & IV Crush Warning
Estimated OTM Premium Melt: --
New Premium Value (Est): --
Option Buyer Safety Status: --

💡 Terminal Strategic Interpretation & Action Playbook

📖 How to Read the Output:

The **Move Buffer** calculates the absolute point variation standard deviation ($1\sigma$) mathematically allowed over your selected days remaining. There is a **68% statistical probability** that the underlying price will stay tightly bound inside the **Lower** and **Upper Boundaries** when time expires.

💰 The Profit Playbook Strategy:

Option Buyers: Never buy call strikes higher than the Upper Boundary or put strikes lower than the Lower Boundary. The market lacks the volatility energy to reach them, making them guaranteed losing positions.

Option Sellers: Sell credit spreads or iron condors *completely outside* these calculated boundaries to consistently collect decay profit with institutional odds in your favor.